When I consider what is to come in 2025 for the world of M&A, my first thought is optimism. This optimism is not naive or unfounded, but rooted in concrete signs we have seen in the market and one fact: Spain is ready for a particularly dynamic year.
We come from a difficult 2024, as we all know. Global economic uncertainty, sky-high interest rates and fierce competition for quality assets meant that many projects remained on stand-by. Nevertheless, we ended the year with very positive figures: 2,632 completed transactions and an 87% increase in average deal value. These numbers leave a clear message: investing appetite remains healthy, and large transactions are back.
A more favourable economic environment
In 2025, macroeconomic conditions seem fairly aligned. The economy is estimated to grow by 2%, interest rates could go down to 2-2.5%, and financing will be more easily accessible. All this creates the perfect groundwork for M&A transactions to gain traction.
In addition, the Spanish market is benefiting from increasing confidence in key sectors such as technology, renewable energies and advanced manufacturing. These areas do not only generate great investment volumes, but also drive structural changes towards sustainability and digitalization.
The best performing sectors
If we focus on the numbers, the technology sector led investments in 2024, with completed transactions worth EUR5,485 million. Real estate follows, at EUR5,266 million, and healthcare is third, at EUR2,031 million. The energy transition and population aging remain key drivers which attract both national and international capital.
The rise of private equity is also notable. These types of investors are leading the majority of transactions, thanks to a combination of portfolio turnover needs and renewed economic optimism. Its strategy is not limited to profitability, but also seeks to generate impact in emerging and sustainable sectors.
The silent catalyst of AI
Those who do not integrate AI in their M&A strategy will stay behind. AI is no longer just a tool to speed up processes, but a game changer. From the due diligence to post-acquisition integration, AI is redefining our way of doing things.
I recently was discussing with a client how AI can analyse assets with a precision which us humans simply cannot match. Identifying risks, identifying opportunities and optimising integration are tasks which, with AI´s help, are not only done faster, but also better. This is not science fiction, it´s our new reality.
The protagonists of 2025
If there is a clear protagonist this year, that is the group comprising private equity, venture capital and family offices. Why? Due to their capacity to adapt and simply because they have the money and expertise to take calculated risks.
At Confianz we have worked with many of them, and the most remarkable aspect is how they have evolved. They no longer focus only on profitability, but also seek to make an impact. Sustainable projects, disruptive technologies and agile business models are the greatest pulling factors for these investors.
I cannot help but firmly trust the possibilities which are opening this year. However, I am also concerned about certain actors underestimating risk. Financing will be more easily available, but this does not make it cheap. In addition, competition for quality assets will continue to be fierce. Without a clear, well-founded strategy, the market can be ruthless.
2025 promises to be a year full of opportunities for M&A in Spain, but also full of challenges. Companies must combine strategic vision with impeccable execution to capitalise on this moment.